Experts are concerned that this year’s dengue outbreak in Bangladesh, which has reached frightening levels, may linger till November.
The number of patients in the hospitals increased even before the dengue season began.
In previous years, the number of patients increased during the onset of dengue season, but this year is an exception.
Doctors are struggling to provide care due to the large number of patients. Already the patient pressure in three major government hospitals of Dhaka is more than the capacity.
However, statistics from the last three years show that the peak time of the dengue outbreak is yet to come.
* Peak season yet to arrive
* August saw highest number of dengue cases in 2019
* Dengue outbreak peaked in August-September in 2021
* Number of dengue patients was high in October-November last year
* July was deadliest month
August saw the highest number of dengue cases in 2019
From January 1 to December 31 of 2019, the number of dengue patients admitted to hospitals was 101,354. While there were 266 suspected dengue deaths that year, the Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR) said 164 deaths were from the disease.
However, according to data provided by the Directorate General of Health Service (DGHS), the actual dengue death toll was 179. In July of that year, 16,253 patients were admitted to the hospital, but in August, it jumped to 50,000. The number of patients started decreasing in September.
Outbreak peaked in August-September in 2021
Due to the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, the number of dengue patients was lower. When the dengue outbreak occurred again in 2021, the trend of increasing patients started in July.
At that time there were 2,286 patients in July, 7,698 in August, 7,841 in September, 5,458 in October and 3,567 in November. A total of 28,429 patients were admitted to hospitals from January 1 to December 31 that year, and 105 people died.
Last year’s situation
Last year the number of dengue patients started increasing in June. In June 737 patients were admitted to hospitals, but from July it exceeded 1,500. Some 3,521 people were admitted in August, 9,991 in September, 21,932 in October, 19,334 in November and 5,024 in December.
From January 1 to December 31 that year, the number of patients admitted to hospitals was 62,382 and 281 died.
July 2023
So far 261 people have died due to dengue infection till August 1 this year.
Among them, 204 people died in July alone. So many deaths from dengue in one month have never been seen in Bangladesh.
Dengue killed 281 people last year. The highest death toll in a month was in November – 113.
In August 2019, a maximum of 52,000 patients were admitted but there were 83 deaths. The total number of patients in July this year was 43,854, which was never seen before.
Peak season
Analyzing data from the last four years, it can be seen that the peak season in 2019 was in August, in 2021 in August and September, and in 2022 in October and November.
The peak season is gradually moving towards the end of the year, and due to this, the outbreak of dengue is seen from January.
In December 2022, 5,024 dengue patients were admitted to hospitals, but in January this year, 566 were admitted. From January to June, 7,978 patients were hospitalized with dengue, which was never seen before. This proves that the dengue menace has increased before the start of the season.
IEDCR advisor Dr Mushtaq Hossain said the number of deaths from dengue can be reduced if patient management is good in dengue treatment. The peak point was in October last year.
“I fear that it may last till November. Then it might decrease,” said the expert.
He also said that now dengue has spread to villages as well. Therefore, the number of dengue patients may continue to increase until October-November.
If Aedes mosquitoes cannot be killed or controlled across the country, it will be very difficult to control the dengue situation, according to DGHS.
Additional Director General (Planning and Research) at the Directorate General of Health Services Professor Dr Ahmadul Kabir said not only Dhaka, dengue is more of an environmental problem than a medical problem.
In this case, public health engineering is more important.
He said that primary health and public health are not the same. Public health is about controlling mosquitoes by involving people.
“If we cannot increase these, if dengue patients continue to increase like this, it will be difficult for us. A crash program for mosquito control is required on an emergency basis, if those who are doing all these things (mosquito control) do more of these things, then the number of patients can be reduced and dengue patients can be treated properly.”
He also said dengue is currently spreading throughout the country. Now the number of patients is high in Dhaka city as well as outside it.
“If we cannot control the Aedes mosquitoes, it will be very difficult to control the dengue situation,” added the health expert.
Meanwhile, Health Minister Zahid Maleque has issued an order to increase the number of beds by another 1,500 in government hospitals in Dhaka.
He said that where it is possible to add beds, they are being prepared.
Source: Dhaka Tribune.